Oil Rises on OPEC+ Output Hold and Venezuela Export Restrictions

 Key Takeaways:

*Oil prices climbed after OPEC+ kept its output policy unchanged and Chevron halted Venezuelan crude exports.

*OPEC+ surprised markets by not increasing production; instead, it focused on setting 2027 output baselines.

*Chevron ended contracts in Venezuela, tightening expected supply.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday amid fresh supply concerns after OPEC+ opted to maintain its current output policy, defying earlier market expectations for a production hike. The organization also announced plans to set production baselines for 2027, with little room for most members to adjust near-term output.

Adding to supply pressures, the U.S. government barred Chevron (NYSE: CVX) from exporting Venezuelan crude, leading the company to terminate its production, service, and procurement contracts in the country. Although Chevron will maintain its local staff, the operational halt is expected to further reduce global crude supply.

These developments contributed to bullish momentum in oil prices, reinforcing market expectations of tighter supply in the near term.

Technical Analysis

Crude Oil, H4

Crude oil prices extended their gains after breaking above a key resistance level and completing a bullish breakout from an asymmetric triangle pattern, signaling continued upward momentum.

The MACD indicator shows increasing bullish divergence, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting strong upward momentum remains intact. Meanwhile, the RSI stands at 65, indicating positive sentiment without yet reaching overbought territory—leaving room for further gains. 

If prices can maintain their strength, the next resistance to watch lies at $63.90, with a potential extension toward $65.95 on sustained bullish pressure. However, failure to hold above the breakout level could prompt a pullback toward the immediate support at $62.20, with a deeper correction targeting the $60.00 level. 

Resistance levels: 63.90, 65.95

Support levels: 62.20, 60.00