Markets Brace for Fed, BoE, and BoJ Decisions as Inflation Data Sets the Tone

The Week Ahead: Week of September 22, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

The final full week of September is packed with high-impact U.S. data and a major central bank decision, setting the stage for volatility across FX and bonds. The week begins with fresh PMI surveys on Tuesday, offering an early read on business activity across manufacturing and services.

Midweek attention turns to U.S. housing, with new home sales and existing home sales shedding light on the health of a sector still pressured by high financing costs. Crude oil inventories will add another layer of market sensitivity, with energy prices already volatile amid geopolitical risks.

Thursday is the most eventful day, headlined by the Swiss National Bank’s rate decision, alongside U.S. durable goods orders, Q2 GDP, jobless claims, and housing data. These releases will give investors a comprehensive update on the U.S. economy’s resilience.

The week concludes Friday with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — Core PCE. With markets closely watching whether disinflation remains on track, the release will be critical for shaping expectations on the Fed’s policy path into year-end. A hotter-than-expected print could rekindle rate concerns, while softer data may reinforce easing bets.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, September 23 – 16:45
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep, Preliminary)
Previous: 53.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The August print showed a steady expansion in manufacturing, signaling resilience despite high borrowing costs. September’s preliminary reading will be closely watched for signs of cooling momentum. A stronger print could suggest U.S. industry remains robust, supporting the dollar, while a miss would reinforce concerns of slowing growth and bolster Fed easing expectations.

Tuesday, September 23 – 16:45
US S&P Global Services PMI (Sep, Preliminary)
Previous: 54.5 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Services activity has been a key driver of U.S. economic strength, helping offset manufacturing softness. Another solid reading would confirm demand remains intact, complicating the Fed’s case for deeper easing. A downside surprise, however, would indicate cracks forming in consumer-driven sectors, pressuring the dollar and yields lower.

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Wednesday, September 24 – 17:00
US New Home Sales (Aug)
Previous: 652K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The U.S. housing market has shown resilience despite mortgage rates near multi-decade highs. Another strong figure would highlight structural supply-demand imbalances, while weaker sales could signal growing affordability challenges. Housing remains a critical gauge of domestic demand conditions.

Wednesday, September 24 – 17:30
US Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: -9.285M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
A sharp drawdown last week underscored tight supply conditions amid geopolitical uncertainty. This week’s report will be pivotal for crude markets, with another large draw likely to boost oil prices. A surprise build, however, could ease concerns about shortages, weighing on energy benchmarks.

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Thursday, September 25 – 10:30
SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3)
Previous: 0.00% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Swiss National Bank has maintained ultra-accommodative policy, even as global peers shift. With inflation subdued and the franc relatively firm, policymakers are likely to hold steady. Any unexpected hawkish signal could lift CHF sharply, while continued dovishness may weaken the currency.

Thursday, September 25 – 15:30
US Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
Previous: -2.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Durable goods orders contracted last month, highlighting weakness in capital investment. A rebound would suggest business demand is stabilizing, easing recession fears. A further decline, however, would reinforce concerns about a slowdown in corporate spending.

Thursday, September 25 – 15:30
US GDP QoQ (Q2, Final)
Previous: -0.5% | Forecast: 3.3% | Actual:N/A
After a surprise rebound from contraction, Q2 GDP will confirm whether U.S. growth momentum was as strong as initially reported. A solid final reading will bolster confidence in the economy’s resilience, while any downward revision could spark fresh growth concerns.

Thursday, September 25 – 15:30
US Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly claims remain a vital real-time labor gauge. Any sharp uptick would fuel bets on a weakening jobs market, reinforcing the Fed’s dovish path, while subdued claims would highlight continued employment resilience.

Thursday, September 25 – 17:00
US Existing Home Sales (Aug)
Previous: 4.01M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Existing home sales continue to struggle under affordability constraints and tight supply. A strong rebound could signal pent-up demand despite higher rates, while another weak print would confirm structural fragility in housing.

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Friday, September 26 – 15:30US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Aug)
Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE will be the week’s highlight. A softer reading would reinforce the case for policy easing into year-end, weighing on the dollar and yields. A stronger outcome, however, could complicate the Fed’s path, reviving hawkish repricing and tightening financial conditions.