Published: 11 December 2025,06:37
Chart The Market
USDJPY, H4:
The USDJPY pair has achieved a notable bullish structural shift, breaking decisively above its prior downtrend channel—a development that establishes a new technical foundation favoring further upside potential. The subsequent retracement found firm support above the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, successfully defending the primary breakout zone and suggesting the broader bullish trajectory remains intact.
However, a significant divergence has emerged in momentum indicators, introducing caution into the near-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought territory and is now consolidating near its mid-line, reflecting a clear loss of bullish momentum. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has generated a bearish death cross and continues to trend lower, signaling that near-term buying pressure has notably dissipated.
This creates a critical technical juncture. The bullish case rests on the confirmed channel breakout and successful Fibonacci support test, while the bearish argument draws from deteriorating momentum oscillators. The pair’s ability to hold above the 61.8% Fibonacci level is now paramount; a sustained break below this support would likely invalidate the breakout structure and signal a deeper corrective phase. Conversely, a rebound from this level that rejuvenates momentum indicators would reaffirm the bullish bias.
Resistance Levels: 157.60, 158.80
Support Levels: 154.35, 153.00
BTC, H4
Bitcoin’s recovery attempt from its October downtrend is showing signs of fatigue, encountering formidable resistance near the $94,650 level. The crypto has faced two consecutive rejections at this barrier, demonstrating a lack of sufficient buying momentum to achieve a decisive breakout.
Furthermore, the broader technical structure remains constrained, as BTC continues to trade beneath its primary long-term downtrend resistance line. This overarching ceiling has contained the price action throughout the corrective phase, and until it is conclusively broken, the near-term bias must still be considered bearish within the context of the larger downtrend.
Momentum indicators present a conflicted picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near its mid-point, offering no strong directional bias and reflecting a current equilibrium between buyers and sellers. In contrast, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is exhibiting a constructive pattern of higher lows, suggesting underlying selling pressure may be gradually abating. This divergence between indicators adds to the current market uncertainty.
Resistance Levels: 93,581.00, 101,365.00
Support Levels: 85,515.00, 77,330.00
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