
USDCAD, H4:
The USDCAD pair has confirmed a significant bearish structural shift, decisively breaking below its long-term uptrend support at the 1.3975 level. This breakdown precipitated a decline to a two-month low of 1.3801, establishing a clear deterioration in the pair’s technical posture.
The subsequent technical rebound now faces a critical test at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline, situated at 1.3885. This level represents a pivotal resistance zone. A clear rejection here would reinforce the newly established bearish bias and could catalyze a resumption of the downtrend, with the next material support projected near the 1.3731 level.
Momentum indicators continue to reflect dominant selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued below its mid-point, indicating a lack of strong bullish conviction, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) persists in a pattern of lower lows below its signal line. This configuration suggests that underlying bearish momentum remains intact despite the short-term bounce.
Resistance Levels: 1.3908, 1.4115
Support Levels: 1.3733, 1.3562

USDJPY, H4
The USDJPY pair has confirmed a constructive technical development, breaking decisively above a recent consolidation pattern that formed as a bullish flag within the context of its broader uptrend. This breakout, accompanied by a gain of approximately 1%, signals a likely resumption of the prevailing bullish momentum and invalidates the preceding corrective phase.
The pair now faces a critical test of its short-term trajectory at the 156.00 support level. A sustained hold above this threshold would affirm that the breakout has established a new foundation for further gains and that the pair remains firmly within its short-term bullish trajectory. Conversely, a slip below this level would suggest the breakout lacks conviction and could lead to a retest of the flag’s upper boundary.
Momentum indicators support the bullish structural shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has advanced into overbought territory, reflecting strong buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has completed a bullish crossover above its zero line. This alignment indicates that momentum has indeed shifted back in favor of the bulls.
Resistance Levels: 157.60, 158.80
Support Levels: 156.00, 154.35
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