Dollar Slides as Weak Economic Data and Fiscal Concerns

 Key Takeaways:

*Dollar Index continues to fall amid persistent weak U.S. data

*Inflation outlook dims as both CPI and PPI miss expectations

Market Summary:

The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, continued to retreat this week as a series of downbeat U.S. economic reports further eroded investor confidence. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both delivered worse-than-expected readings, with the PPI coming in at just 0.10% compared to the 0.20% forecast, suggesting persistent disinflationary pressure. This was accompanied by a disappointing Initial Jobless Claims figure of 248K, exceeding expectations of 242K, which reinforces signs of labor market weakness.

These data points have deepened expectations that the Federal Reserve could shift to a more accommodative policy stance, with a growing gap to justify interest rate cuts in an effort to stimulate the economy.

On the trade front, although the U.S. and China recently announced they had reached a framework agreement to resolve trade disputes, market sentiment remained cautious due to the absence of tangible progress—especially with key tariff measures still intact. Investors are reluctant to reposition significantly until these issues are formally addressed.

Looking ahead, the long-term outlook for the dollar remains bearish. Not only are inflationary pressures waning, but U.S. fiscal stability continues to be threatened by mounting debt. The upcoming Senate discussion in July regarding a fresh tax stimulus plan could further inflate the federal deficit, raising structural concerns about the dollar’s sustainability as a reserve currency.

Technical Analysis 

DXY, H4: 

The Dollar Index is currently testing a critical support level at 97.90. A successful break below this level may signal extended downside potential toward 96.55. 

However, technical indicators are showing early signs of exhaustion—MACD is exhibiting diminishing bearish momentum, and RSI has dropped to 34, signaling possible oversold conditions. 

If the index holds above 97.90, a short-term rebound toward 98.65 is likely.

Resistance Levels: 98.65, 99.55
Support Levels: 97.90, 96.55