The ECB cut its deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25%, the seventh cut since last June, citing global trade tensions as a major risk to Eurozone growth. The euro remained relatively steady post-announcement, as the cut was widely anticipated. Sentiment received a mild boost from US-EU trade optimism, with President Trump and Italian PM Giorgia Meloni both expressing confidence in a forthcoming deal. Trump even stated it is “100% going to happen,” while Meloni stressed Western unity. Her visit came after Trump paused a planned 20% tariff on EU goods.
Technical Breakout:
EUR/USD is trading higher and testing resistance. MACD has formed a golden cross, and RSI at 53 suggests a bullish tilt. A breakout above 1.1385 could signal further gains toward 1.1455. If rejected, the pair may retreat to support at 1.1270.
Potential Risks: Lingering U.S.-China trade tensions could inject volatility into the euro.
Monitoring: Investors are advised to continue monitoring trade development between US and the world to gauge the likelihood movement for the asset classes.
Resistance levels: 1.1385, 1.1455
Support levels: 1.1270, 1.1185
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